This has been the most difficult forecast, in the series, for me to write. I’m having mixed feelings on whether or not I should feel optimistic or pessimistic about next year’s legal battles with the Bush administration.

The federal government is like a glacier, it moves very slowly, but when it hits the destruction is absolute. I believe the federal government was just warming up in 2005, with the real assault coming in 2006. However, recent developments give cause for some degree of optimism.

Obviously Judge Millers ruling for injunctive relief, in the 2257 case, gives some reason for optimism. My concern is a lot of people in this industry will view it as a total victory, when in fact, its just on small step in a very long and drawn out process. It’s also important to remember that new legislation is in the wings that will render much, if not all, of Miller’s ruling moot. I’m reasonably confident the new legislation will become law in 2006.

I am encouraged by the ACLU’s involvement in some of the industry’s landmark cases. The Bush administration is going to use great care when it comes to a wrestling match with that six hundred pound gorilla.

Also very encouraging is the recent backlash Bush is experiencing with rights to privacy. Public sentiment is getting a bit ugly toward Bush’s police state mentality, and this might spill over into some legal cases. The most important of those being the Extreme Associates case, argued largely on the issue of rights to privacy. The only chance of that, however, is if the case goes to a jury, a scenario the defense would like to avoid.

I’m going to step out on a limb here by suggesting that the Bush administration’s push toward what looks a lot like Marshal Law, could have an impact on the 2006 election. The American public may decide to voice their intolerance by voting a few people out of office. Even if they do, I’m not convinced it would be enough to change the political landscape.

For what its worth, there is a political influence on the American judicial system that should not be overlooked. While judges cannot be fired for their rulings, carrier paths are most definitely mapped out with each decision they make. Under the current political climate, most judges in this country are not anxious to draw the adult straw. It’s a no-win situation for them. If they rule in favor of free speech and rights to privacy, their career is dead in a conservative administration. If they rule conservative, they will be labeled as such by future liberal administrations.

Finally, we cannot ignore the fact that Bush has stacked the deck at the highest court in the land. Any victories we manage to achieve in 2006 are sure to make their way to the U.S. Supreme Court. Once these cases reach those hallowed halls, my optimism starts to fade.

The report, “How Women and Men Use the Internet”, a new study that examines gender and Internet use, by the Pew Internet & American Life Project was released yesterday. The study that looked at adults, 18 and older, included some findings that are of interest to the adult industry.

Currently, one of the most pronounced gender differences is that more men than women have high-speed connections at home; 52 percent of men use broadband at home, compared to 48 percent of women.

Men tend to use the Web for entertainment more than women do. Women, on the other hand, are more enthusiastic e-mail users.

Men were more inclined to download video files - 22 percent of men, compared to 13 percent of women.

Of those that would admit to viewing an adult web site - 21 percent men and 5 percent women.

The report also revealed that 48 percent men and 31 percent women are more likely to download and share adult content.

Pew Internet made an annotation that, over the years, the percentages have been consistent; of all adults using the Internet, 13% to 15% admit to visiting adult web sites.
Traditionally, 3 to 5 times as many men as women admit to visiting adult sites.

http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/171/report_display.asp

I believe we will see a lot of companies move toward Flash movies in 2006. It will become the favorite for a wide range of promotional materials, including site tours and hosted galleries. A quick look at the benefits, and Flash becomes the obvious choice.

The Flash Player is ubiquitous, boasting installs on 98% of all desktops globally. It works on Windows, Macintosh, Unix, PDAs, and even cell phones. Unlike Java and DHTML, Flash behaves the same everywhere. The Flash player for Firefox behaves exactly the same as the Flash player for Internet Explorer. When compressed, the Flash files are very low bandwidth, so nearly any connection speed can download the movie.

Of even greater benefit, Flash movies can be produced with interactive features. While I doubt this capability will be taped initially, it will be the next logical step.

Unlike other video formats, Flash works for everyone, and that’s a competitive edge no one can afford to pass up.

In 2005 webmasters began to embrace the concept there’s money to be made in blogging. Text rich, and updated frequently, blogs are incredibly powerful search engine magnets. However, webmasters quickly discovered there’s a lot of work involved in reaping the SEO benefits of blogging.

The effort required maintaining a content (text) rich blog is counter culture to the fast paced atmosphere most seekers of traffic work in. Consequently, most would be adult bloggers have tried turning their blogs into TGPs, a strategy that has delivered disappointing returns. Those refusing to discard this untapped resource, yet unwilling to actually do any work, will turn to an age-old adult business practice - content theft.

Using special software, the content thieves will harvest original content from blog RSS feeds and publish it on their fake blogs. The practice of harvesting RSS feeds to populate blogs is not new. In fact, it’s already a huge problem, referred to as splogs, in mainstream blog space. As adult blogging becomes more prolific in 2006, this menace will follow like a pack of hungry wolves.

I see the dilution of search engine performance, caused by these tens of thousands of splobs, a real threat. While Umbria Communications, a consumer-generated media monitor, expresses the concern that splogs, “could become a detractor to people using, enjoying and finding value in the blogosphere.”

Although steps can be taken by bloggers to block the harvesting of their content, its unlikely most will take any preventative action. More important, one has to question how many of these free adult blog hosting services, just starting to emerge, are actually fronts for the harvesters. Most often fingered as the primary mainstream culprit is Google, which has fed the splog problem through its free hosting Blogger tool, and made it profitable through AdSense. While I’m not accusing any of these adult services of foul play, there should be some scrutiny of any company that displays no visible means of monetizing from their free offering.

On a brighter note, 2006 is the year RSS will mature as a means of monetizing. That said, I have no earthly idea what this will look like. But I expect it to become apparent by the end of second quarter.

In 2005, a handful of US companies began delivering porn videos to portable devices such as iPod, Pocket PC, PSP, and cellular phones. We should expect continued growth in this area during 2006. In fact, 2006 is going to be “the year” for portable video porn, as well as, the last year.

The concept is a novelty that will quickly pass, once consumers realize it’s totally impractical. If we remind ourselves that porn is typically used for sexual stimulation, it doesn’t seem logical that consumers will have any use for videos outside the privacy of their home, hotel room, or RV. Travelers are not going to watch porn videos on busses, trains, or planes. College students won’t be popping boners during boring lectures. And couples will have difficulty finding any sexual enhancement from a three inch display on the bed stand. Perhaps a few guys will find porn videos on their iPod helpful during a quick wank in a public bathroom stall, but those numbers do not constitute a market. I’m sure lots of people (mostly straight guys) will want to show off to their friends they have porn on their phone. A novelty that’s good for a few laughs before it becomes old news.

Mainstream markets see huge ad dollars in delivering free content preceded by an advertisement. This is a branding strategy that should do well in those markets. In fact, surveys have revealed that portable device consumers will watch an advertisement in return for free content. Unfortunately, for the adult industry, the most accepting demographic for ad-supported content is teenagers. On top of that, branding strategies do not work well for the porn industry, as we tend to profit mostly from the impulse buy. Factor in the issues with age verification, and ad supported adult content delivery looses its appeal.

Will portable porn have a life after 2006? I don’t see video content surviving as a direct revenue source. In fact, I don’t see full-length VOD surviving at all. Most likely, videos will find limited appeal as a free tack-on, offered by traditional premium site delivery systems, or as promotional clips by video producers. Adult wallpaper and ring tones will do well with straight men, but will have little appeal with the gay and straight woman consumer.

The real appeal, in my opinion, will be with interactive adult themed offerings, or soft porn with some sort of novelty twist, such as naughty humor. I’ll stop short of suggesting what those offerings might look like. I’ve read about some interesting interactive services being tried in Europe. However, 2257 might prohibit, in the US, what is being done in other countries right now - depending on how the law, and its regulations, pan out in the courts.

While companies, like Juniper Research, are spouting some attractive projections, I don’t see them getting specific about the types of adult content slated to rake in billions by the end of the decade. In my opinion, companies are dashing for an early market presence by delivering what is already available to them. I’d like to think these companies are also working on mobile products that will stand the test of time. My crystal ball is in the shop, so we’ll just have to wait and see how it all shakes out.

In 2005 a sleeping giant awoke to the realization there is huge money to be made in the gay marketplace. The giant I’m referring to is the straight adult industry.

With their market saturated, and virtually every micro niche imaginable already tapped, the straight companies are looking for fresh sources of revenue. It didn’t take long for these industry giants to discover a brand new pot of gold exists at the end of the rainbow. In 2006 I expect these resource rich companies to invade the gay marketplace like a swarm of locusts. Most companies, currently operating in the gay marketplace, will be caught off guard, and powerless to mount a defense.

There is only a hand full of gay companies with the resources to compete against the enormous market reach of their straight counter parts. And with rare exception most established gay companies are still operating like it’s the year 2000. To make things worse, the gay adult business community has fragmented into small adversarial clicks. This leaves little chance of a unified defense against the tsunami like wave that is about to hit.

Early evidence of this impending doom can be found in AVN’s announcement of their new GAYVN Magazine, scheduled to debut in January of 2006. Gay owned companies are just kidding themselves if they think the new magazine is validation. In my opinion AVN’s new magazine is not positioning to attract advertisers from the established gay marketplace. To the contrary, AVN sees an opportunity to expand with their existing advertisers, comprised mostly of straight companies.

If anyone doubts the market reach of the straight industry, they need only look to their affiliate base. Those “in the know” will tell you the best affiliates, for gay traffic, are the straight webmasters. And that resource is what the straight companies will use to deliver a deathblow.

IntenseCash announced today they have added 40 new hosted movie galleries for their latest site BrokeStraightBoys.com. They also reported the new site is doing an amazing 1:129 signup ratio - the best conversion of any site produced by IntenseCash.

I thought it would be interesting to do a series of articles on what 2006 has in store for the adult industry. For the most part, I’ve selected broader topics that affect the adult industry as a whole. I decided to call them forecasts, because I don’t want anyone accusing me of making predictions, even though that’s what they really are. Calling it a forecast, in my opinion, removes the perception that a crystal ball was in play.

I have the six topics, for six days, written down, but I’m not going to share them with you upfront. This is not a clever ploy to create suspense. I just want to keep my options open, as the series progresses.

The first topic in this series is Industry Trade Shows…

I’ll start off by forecasting Internext Las Vegas 2006 will be a huge flop. In my opinion, AVN’s decision to schedule the show at the same time the International Consumer Electronics Show is in town was an ill-conceived attempt at making Internext look busier than it really is. Room shortages, inflated rates, lack of transportation, and unbearable crowds make Internext an unattractive destination for early 2006.

While they have been careful to avoid suggesting it’s an alternative, many of the industry’s movers and shakers have opted for an informal gathering in the Dominican Republic. By my observation, this snub sends a clear message that AVN needs to make some changes.

As a result, I think Phoenix Forum will do well in 2006. In fact, they are likely to see some growth from the fall out generated by Internext Las Vegas. How all of this will impact Internext Summer 2006 is still up in the air, but one has to factor in the glut of shows available to this industry throughout the year.

I believe 2006 will be the shake up year for industry trade shows, and similarly packaged business-to-business events. Hardly a month goes by there isn’t at least one gathering someplace in the world. While it’s gotten to be a bit ridiculous, I’m not surprised by all these offerings. This is to be expected when the dominant player looses its draw. On the other hand, one or more big winners will have to emerge from it all, because there are too many players vying for the audience right now.

Whether or not Internext can make a come back is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain - something has to change, and it will happen in 2006.

This is one of many articles I’ll post for those of you interested in producing your own content. My focus will be more on working with the models and equipment, than dealing with the legal (2257) stuff.

I strongly recommend a first meeting, with a potential new model, be done in a public place. It’s just not safe to bring a stranger to your home, particularly if you are there by yourself. Depending on your method of recruitment, you may know very little about the person you are meeting. He could just as easily be setting you up for a mugging or bashing. I’ve never had a problem with any model, but I know plenty of guys that have. Until you have gotten to know the guy a little better, its best to take some precautions. I do not advise allowing the model to bring a friend.

If the model is over 21, you can meet him at a bar. Bars are good because you can speak more candidly than in other types of establishments. If you meet in a bar, do it mid afternoon. Otherwise there may be other producers/photographers in their scouting for new models. Even if they don’t know you are a producer, a lot of these guys can be very aggressive when they see fresh meat, so try and avoid those situations.

Alternative meeting places are restaurants or coffee shops that are busy and noisy. This way you can limit the possibility of anyone overhearing your conversation. I’m very big on using discretion, as you never know how people around you will react.

There are a number of reasons for having this meeting. You want to learn some things about the model that do not communicate in Email or IM. Things like how butch he is, what he really looks like, is he well spoken enough to use in videos, and any other general impressions you might find useful. This meeting also tells you if he’s likely to show up for shoots. Most important, it’s the first step in both of you establishing trust in each other.

After completion of the Randy Blue face lift, Blue Loot announced this week a wide range of improvements for their affiliates. Most notable, in conjunction with their new weekly update schedule, hosted galleries and direct linking codes will be updated twice a week.

Blue Loot now boasts over 450 hosted galleries, with new designs and content added. Additionally, webmasters can download the photos form these galleries for use as free content.

The direct video marketing tool has been upgraded to allow promotion of Randy Blue videos and other DVD scenes separately. Each scene also includes a zip download of six 10 second MPEGs, and 4 screen caps, to be used as promotionals.

Other improvements include; a new linking code that will send traffic to the latest update news page, the movie of the day promo can now be offered with a text link, and the Blue Loot banner collection has been greatly expanded.